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ENBRIDGE INC (ENB)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record quarter: Adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to C$5.83B, Adjusted EPS C$1.03, and DCF C$3.78B; GAAP EPS C$1.04 .
  • Guidance maintained: 2025 Adjusted EBITDA C$19.4–C$20.0B and DCF/share C$5.50–C$5.90 reaffirmed; leverage at 4.9x with a path to 4.5–5.0x .
  • Operational strength: Mainline throughput hit a Q1 record ~3.2M bpd; EIEC recorded record export volumes; Gas Transmission and U.S. gas utilities drove growth .
  • Strategic updates: Binding open season to add 150 kbpd via Flanagan South, FID on Traverse Pipeline (up to 1.75–1.8 Bcf/d), and agreement to acquire 10% of Matterhorn Express (2.5 Bcf/d) .
  • Dividend catalyst: Board declared C$0.9425 quarterly dividend (June 1 payment), consistent with March 1 increase; supports income narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Mainline apportioned all quarter, delivering a first-quarter record of ~3.2M bpd, underpinning Liquids EBITDA growth and optimization plans .
    • Gas Transmission strength from revised rates (Algonquin, TETLP, Maritimes & Northeast U.S.), Venice Extension in service, and Whistler/DBR contributions .
    • U.S. gas utilities: full-quarter contributions and colder-than-normal Ontario weather drove Gas Distribution EBITDA to C$1.6B; management highlighted “record EBITDA, DCF per share and EPS” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • FX hedge settlements weighed on Eliminations & Other (Adjusted EBITDA -C$73MM), reflecting higher realized FX hedge losses vs 2024 .
    • Lower volumes on Flanagan South and Express-Platte tempered Gulf Coast/Mid-Continent contributions within Liquids .
    • European offshore wind saw weaker wind resource, reducing Renewables EBITDA vs prior year .

Financial Results

Key financial metrics (C$; oldest → newest):

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
GAAP EPSC$0.59 C$0.23 C$1.04
Adjusted EPSC$0.55 C$0.75 C$1.03
Adjusted EBITDA (C$B)C$4.20 C$5.13 C$5.83
Cash from Ops (C$B)C$2.97 C$3.66 C$3.05
DCF (C$B)C$2.60 C$3.07 C$3.78
Weighted Avg Shares (MM)2,177 2,178 2,179

Year-over-year comparison (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024):

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
GAAP Earnings (C$B)C$1.42 C$2.26
GAAP EPSC$0.67 C$1.04
Adjusted EBITDA (C$B)C$4.95 C$5.83
Adjusted Earnings (C$B)C$1.96 C$2.24
Adjusted EPSC$0.92 C$1.03
DCF (C$B)C$3.46 C$3.78
Cash from Ops (C$B)C$3.15 C$3.05

Segment Adjusted EBITDA (C$MM; Q1):

SegmentQ1 2024Q1 2025
Liquids Pipelines2,460 2,621
Gas Transmission1,274 1,439
Gas Distribution & Storage765 1,600
Renewable Power279 241
Eliminations & Other176 -73
Total Adjusted EBITDA4,954 5,828

KPIs and operational metrics (oldest → newest):

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Mainline Throughput (kbpd)2,961 3,079 ~3,200
Debt-to-EBITDA (rolling 12m)4.9x 5.0x 4.9x

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025C$19.4–C$20.0B C$19.4–C$20.0B Maintained
DCF per ShareFY 2025C$5.50–C$5.90 C$5.50–C$5.90 Maintained
Debt-to-EBITDA TargetOngoing4.5–5.0x 4.5–5.0x; Q1 at 4.9x Maintained
Common DividendQ2 2025C$0.9425 declared for Mar 1 (increase from C$0.9150) C$0.9425 declared for Jun 1 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Tariffs/Macro“Tariffs not expected to be material”; focus on long-term utilization “Don’t expect tariffs to have a material impact” reaffirmed; apportionment and full nominations persist Stable/benign impact
WCSB egress & MainlineBack in apportionment; LOI with Alberta; ROE collar performance Q1 record volumes; binding open season adds 150 kbpd; up to C$2B Mainline capital by 2028 Strengthening
Permian gas “super system”Whistler/Blackcomb/DBR; Gulf Coast connectivity Traverse FID (Agua Dulce ↔ Katy); Matterhorn 10% stake agreed Expanding
Data center power demand/AI1.2 GW solar sanctions; utilities seeing demand 35+ opportunities (~11 Bcf/d) targeted; 5 GW gas to power already signed; more FIDs expected Accelerating
Regulatory & rate casesTETLP settlement in effect; Algonquin/M&N settlements Ontario/Utah/NC rate filings; constructive outcomes expected Constructive

Management Commentary

  • “Strong utilization across our asset base underpinned record financial results and sets us up to meet or exceed our financial guidance for the 20th consecutive year” — Greg Ebel, CEO .
  • “We don’t expect tariffs to have a material impact on our current operations or deployment of capital” — Greg Ebel, CEO .
  • “We posted new quarterly records across all metrics… adjusted EBITDA up 18%, DCF/share up 6%, EPS up 12%” — Pat Murray, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Permitting reform: Management “enthused” about U.S./Canada momentum; selective use of accelerated pathways while prioritizing strong policy and regulatory certainty .
  • Mainline Optimization (Phase 1): Strong open season response; incremental 150 kbpd seen as “insurance egress” supporting basin growth .
  • Data center/Power demand: 35+ projects equating to ~11 Bcf/d by 2032; near-term C$1–2B pipeline; 5 GW gas-to-power already contracted .
  • Permian outlook: Contracted model resilient to producer variability; JV alignment strong; continued expansions at Ingleside/Gray Oak .
  • Guidance cadence: Seasonality in utilities and liquids; strong Q1 provides cushion, FX a tailwind, interest rates a watchpoint .

Estimates Context

S&P Global Wall Street consensus vs actual (USD, Q1 2025):

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Primary EPS$0.664$0.717Beat (≈+8%)
Revenue ($B)$7.17$12.87Beat
EBITDA ($B)$3.87$3.58Miss
# EPS Estimates11——
# Revenue Estimates2——

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications:

  • EPS and revenue beats suggest stronger-than-modeled utility and liquids contributions; EBITDA miss (USD basis) likely reflects FX/hedging settlements and Renewables softness vs models, despite CAD Adjusted EBITDA strength . Estimates likely need upward revision for revenue/EPS; EBITDA modeling should incorporate FX hedge impacts and segment mix .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Record Q1 and reaffirmed FY guidance support dividend safety and mid-single-digit growth outlook; leverage trending to midpoint of 4.5–5.0x as acquisitions annualize .
  • Liquids momentum: apportionment persists; low-multiple Mainline optimization and Flanagan South capacity provide near-term throughput gains .
  • Gas Transmission “super system” gaining scale: Traverse FID and Matterhorn stake deepen Gulf Coast optionality; expect additional brownfield wins at 6–8x build multiples .
  • Utilities are a growth engine: full-quarter contributions and constructive rate cases (OH/NC/UT) underpin multi-year rate base growth and earnings visibility .
  • Data center power demand is a structural tailwind: management targets C$1–2B of near-term projects; 5 GW already contracted across GTM/GDS enhances medium-term EBITDA trajectory .
  • FX hedge settlements can create quarter-to-quarter noise in Eliminations & Other; underlying segment EBITDA remains strong (notably Liquids/GTM/GDS) .
  • Renewables execution remains disciplined and contracted; near-term softness from European wind resource offset by U.S. solar FIDs and ITCs, sustaining cash accretion .

Notes on non-GAAP metrics

Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EPS, and DCF are non-GAAP measures with reconciliations provided in the press release appendices; management uses these to assess performance and set targets .